The best people I've seen in this space pay attention to base rates (past behavior/events are a good indicator of future behavior/events) and estimate probabilities (.10 not likely to happen to .70 likely to happen) based on personal observation. They will then update the prior probability of something happening with their new estimates.
I tend to lean towards a situation-based approach (Shriberg and Shriberg. 2011).
It sounds like this is what you are reiterating.
While gray thinking (Sample. 2002) is imperative. It truly depends on your orders. We won't get very far if we over think them. Sometimes a boss wants us to be quiet and do. I try to be mindful of the Japanese saying: "...the nail that sticks out, gets hammered down..."
The best people I've seen in this space pay attention to base rates (past behavior/events are a good indicator of future behavior/events) and estimate probabilities (.10 not likely to happen to .70 likely to happen) based on personal observation. They will then update the prior probability of something happening with their new estimates.
Way to save the best for last. The last sentence really hit home.
We crave simplicity at times.
Simplicity can often feel like clarity, and clarity feels like truth.
But the deepest truths refuse to fit into neat categories.
Good morning,
What an interesting perspective.
I tend to lean towards a situation-based approach (Shriberg and Shriberg. 2011).
It sounds like this is what you are reiterating.
While gray thinking (Sample. 2002) is imperative. It truly depends on your orders. We won't get very far if we over think them. Sometimes a boss wants us to be quiet and do. I try to be mindful of the Japanese saying: "...the nail that sticks out, gets hammered down..."
Thank you for your time.