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David C Morris's avatar

The best people I've seen in this space pay attention to base rates (past behavior/events are a good indicator of future behavior/events) and estimate probabilities (.10 not likely to happen to .70 likely to happen) based on personal observation. They will then update the prior probability of something happening with their new estimates.

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J. Michael Thomas's avatar

Way to save the best for last. The last sentence really hit home.

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