Essentially, all decisions are bets. If luck weren’t involved, the best poker players would win every time. The same is true for leaders. If not for chance and unpredictable influences, the smartest leaders would always make the right decision. For decision-makers, luck is either a negative, or a necessary ally. The best decision-makers strike a truce with luck by incorporating it into their decision process.
Last week Cary hosted our first 3-day concert at our amphitheater (6,500 patrons) by a national act. Our parks special events team and venue management saw this as an amazing way to get our name out to other bigger acts, which it certainly was.
However, they also saw it as just another event in terms of public safety and offsite resident complaints. So, we – the Town Manager’s Office – facilitated meeting s between the event, safety, communications, and public works people that allowed all sides to learn from each other and plan contingencies beyond our previous experiences.
In brainstorming what could happen and what needed to happen, we agreed to three goals in priority order: (1) safety – attendees, staff, contractors, and the performer/team; (2) patron experience of the concert/venue; (3) offsite impacts to residents, community.
This was the framework we used to create our worst case plans, and these guided our actions when the unpredicted occurred over the 3 days.
In this way, we created our luck: no offsite complaints, 10 arrests over the 3 days, happy crowd, no offsite complaints filed, rave revues for the venue, happy performer.
To set the goals, we had to lead colleagues out of their silos, and for the success of all goals, communication was the key, especially pre-event comms with the ticket holders, surrounding residents, local and state law enforcement…
As for the weather, we’re still working on controlling that in Cary! LOL
It is said that Napoleon preferred lucky generals over unlucky ones. With the proper understanding of “luck” one can certainly understand why. Also reminds me of the saying, “Chance favors the prepared mind” and “Fortune favors the bold” — though maybe that’s reaching a little beyond the subject at hand. Certainly many people are not open to luck either— and would rather take credit and chalk good results up to their own skill. Knowing that luck is a factor in many successes is certainly a good character trait— it’s not quite humility, but it is a good sign nonetheless.
Good point, Max. Anyone with a reputation for being lucky, beyond literally winning the lottery twice, has something else going on in how they approach and adjust to options in their decision-making process.
Do you remember where read that bit about Napoleon?
Love this.... "The critical skill required to master luck is not to predict it, but to expect it."
Two thoughts: 1. I've noticed that better behaviours tend to bring better luck. The evidence is anecdotal, but I find it encouraging still. 2. I accept the admonition to "re-evaluate" & start fresh when "luck" changes the circumstances. Refusing to accept a new paradigm has not worked out for me in many cases. :)
Both are tough. During "bad luck", one might experience the added pressure of the emotions which accompany failure. During "good luck", it's tough to convince myself to change strategies b/c they might have been contributing to the "luck".
Perfect for strategists, project managers, or emergency preparedness - really good one!
Thanks Susan. You have a personal anecdote of when you or someone you were observing created their own luck?
Last week Cary hosted our first 3-day concert at our amphitheater (6,500 patrons) by a national act. Our parks special events team and venue management saw this as an amazing way to get our name out to other bigger acts, which it certainly was.
However, they also saw it as just another event in terms of public safety and offsite resident complaints. So, we – the Town Manager’s Office – facilitated meeting s between the event, safety, communications, and public works people that allowed all sides to learn from each other and plan contingencies beyond our previous experiences.
In brainstorming what could happen and what needed to happen, we agreed to three goals in priority order: (1) safety – attendees, staff, contractors, and the performer/team; (2) patron experience of the concert/venue; (3) offsite impacts to residents, community.
This was the framework we used to create our worst case plans, and these guided our actions when the unpredicted occurred over the 3 days.
In this way, we created our luck: no offsite complaints, 10 arrests over the 3 days, happy crowd, no offsite complaints filed, rave revues for the venue, happy performer.
To set the goals, we had to lead colleagues out of their silos, and for the success of all goals, communication was the key, especially pre-event comms with the ticket holders, surrounding residents, local and state law enforcement…
As for the weather, we’re still working on controlling that in Cary! LOL
It is said that Napoleon preferred lucky generals over unlucky ones. With the proper understanding of “luck” one can certainly understand why. Also reminds me of the saying, “Chance favors the prepared mind” and “Fortune favors the bold” — though maybe that’s reaching a little beyond the subject at hand. Certainly many people are not open to luck either— and would rather take credit and chalk good results up to their own skill. Knowing that luck is a factor in many successes is certainly a good character trait— it’s not quite humility, but it is a good sign nonetheless.
Good point, Max. Anyone with a reputation for being lucky, beyond literally winning the lottery twice, has something else going on in how they approach and adjust to options in their decision-making process.
Do you remember where read that bit about Napoleon?
A Short History of Napoleon I, by John Robert Seely Cambridge 1896.
I believe he said Napoleon preferred lucky generals to good ones.
Love this.... "The critical skill required to master luck is not to predict it, but to expect it."
Two thoughts: 1. I've noticed that better behaviours tend to bring better luck. The evidence is anecdotal, but I find it encouraging still. 2. I accept the admonition to "re-evaluate" & start fresh when "luck" changes the circumstances. Refusing to accept a new paradigm has not worked out for me in many cases. :)
Do you find it easier to accept and start fresh in moments of bad luck more than after good luck?
Both are tough. During "bad luck", one might experience the added pressure of the emotions which accompany failure. During "good luck", it's tough to convince myself to change strategies b/c they might have been contributing to the "luck".
Every time the topic of LUCK comes up now, I think of this guy....
https://theuijunkie.com/bill-morgan-lottery/