Good leaders, even brilliant ones, are prone to cognitive biases that skew decision-making. Of the many villains that undermine sound thinking, one that stands out is the tendency to overrate or underrate your own skills and intelligence when making an important decision. Leaders commonly overestimate their own thinking and brain power in areas where they lack expertise and underestimate their cognitive abilities on topics where they are highly competent. This can lead to some lousy decisions.
If I were making a bet, I would say that leaders most likely to fall victim to this are Hedgehogs and least likely would be Foxes (Reference: https://www.npr.org/2019/07/08/739502013/the-fox-and-the-hedgehog-a-story-of-triumphs-and-tragedy). I've always felt that what Phil is describing in this post can be measured by the Openness to Experience scale on Big 5 Personality measures. Low scorers (Hedgehogs) know one or two things really well. They have a reputation for making timely decisions and being confident. High scorers (Foxes) know a little bit about a lot of things and may be seen as indecisive at times and less confident in their decisions. Good stuff! I love the Richard Feynman quote at the end. I'm looking forward to the day when you write a post about 'Cargo Cult' Leadership practices. BTW - a few years back, I attempted to measure the Dunning-Kruger effect in Performance Reviews - https://github.com/davidcmorris/hrmeasured/blob/67536020e0d06cb21102e8ab47be2068442c3270/Dunning-Kruger%20Effect%20on%20Self-Ratings%20in%20Performance%20Reviews.ipynb
Spot on. I have yet to work in an organization, where the leadership is not abundant in this bias. In retail this runs rife. That's why we just smile and nod, while trying to be a lookout for our people.
A lot of high ranking individuals may know about this, but that's it.
Hi Joe - do you think there is something inherent in the way that the retail industry generally operates that tends to amplify this bias more than other areas?
Hmmm, that is a loaded question. I believe there are a lot of moving pieces. Even more after the pandemic. A lot of it comes down to most of it being unskilled labor. Anyone, and I do mean anyone, can learn it. The question is, do people want to (skill versus will). A lot of those at the top (store level) brown nose, bully, and/or simply wait out the others to become fed up enough to leave. Then they get moved up. I recently went through a training program (to call it that is kind). It paid well enough. The disorganization and lack of communication was massive. At the end I brought some concerns up to a manager. He said when he went through he'd attempted to reach out to corporate about a program update. Several years later, no update or even response. That's retail on the frontlines for ya.
It's just the way it is. Take it until you don't have to, then jump on the first opening you get;).
If I were making a bet, I would say that leaders most likely to fall victim to this are Hedgehogs and least likely would be Foxes (Reference: https://www.npr.org/2019/07/08/739502013/the-fox-and-the-hedgehog-a-story-of-triumphs-and-tragedy). I've always felt that what Phil is describing in this post can be measured by the Openness to Experience scale on Big 5 Personality measures. Low scorers (Hedgehogs) know one or two things really well. They have a reputation for making timely decisions and being confident. High scorers (Foxes) know a little bit about a lot of things and may be seen as indecisive at times and less confident in their decisions. Good stuff! I love the Richard Feynman quote at the end. I'm looking forward to the day when you write a post about 'Cargo Cult' Leadership practices. BTW - a few years back, I attempted to measure the Dunning-Kruger effect in Performance Reviews - https://github.com/davidcmorris/hrmeasured/blob/67536020e0d06cb21102e8ab47be2068442c3270/Dunning-Kruger%20Effect%20on%20Self-Ratings%20in%20Performance%20Reviews.ipynb
Thanks for you input here, David.
Always happy to have your insight going into our 15 minute discussion on it.
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1yNGaZzjZWlJj?s=20
Spot on. I have yet to work in an organization, where the leadership is not abundant in this bias. In retail this runs rife. That's why we just smile and nod, while trying to be a lookout for our people.
A lot of high ranking individuals may know about this, but that's it.
Thanks for your time.
Hi Joe - do you think there is something inherent in the way that the retail industry generally operates that tends to amplify this bias more than other areas?
Steve,
Hmmm, that is a loaded question. I believe there are a lot of moving pieces. Even more after the pandemic. A lot of it comes down to most of it being unskilled labor. Anyone, and I do mean anyone, can learn it. The question is, do people want to (skill versus will). A lot of those at the top (store level) brown nose, bully, and/or simply wait out the others to become fed up enough to leave. Then they get moved up. I recently went through a training program (to call it that is kind). It paid well enough. The disorganization and lack of communication was massive. At the end I brought some concerns up to a manager. He said when he went through he'd attempted to reach out to corporate about a program update. Several years later, no update or even response. That's retail on the frontlines for ya.
It's just the way it is. Take it until you don't have to, then jump on the first opening you get;).
Hope that helps.
Thanks for your time
Appreciate your thoughtful reply. Thanks, Joe.