How Leaders Overestimate and Underestimate Their Own Brain Power

Good leaders, even brilliant ones, are prone to cognitive biases that skew decision-making. 

Of the many villains that undermine sound thinking, one that stands out is the tendency to overrate or underrate your own skills and intelligence when making an important decision. Leaders commonly overestimate their own thinking and brain power in areas where they lack expertise and underestimate their cognitive abilities on topics where they are highly competent. This can lead to some lousy decisions. 

Technically known as the Dunning-Kruger effect, this bias raises concerns about when leaders should trust their own instincts and abilities and when they shouldn’t. 

On the one hand, the false presumption leaders sometimes make is to assume whatever they are good at or knowledgeable about is shared by others. This makes them blind to their own special talents, skills, and knowledge. Allowing others who are less expert to exert an equal influence over a decision is a consequence of this fallacy. In essence, some leaders weigh what others think way too much when they themselves are the true expert in the room. 

The opposite problem is even more prevalent. In arenas where they have little background, expertise, or knowledge, leaders who view themselves as good thinkers overestimate their skills at making smart decisions. Instead of leaning heavily on those who have the background and knowledge to contribute to the decision, they discount this input, preferring their own counsel and intuitive wisdom. 

Leaders who are heavily prone to this bias can make a real mess of a given decision. Failing to recognize their own knowledge gaps or underweighting their unique understandings means leaders either seek too many viewpoints from others or too few of them, depending on their expert standing in the situation. Because it is invisible to those affected by it, this bias can severely skew an important decision. 

In addition to just knowing about the bias and maintaining a more objective view of their own knowledge and skills, the best way to offset this tendency is for leaders to ask for feedback about their true expertise before important decisions arise. Knowing how trusted colleagues view their expertise is the key. Where do they think you possess rare skills, abilities, and knowledge? What areas would they admit you think you know more about than you do? 

Having a more objective view regarding your true expertise and skill is the most important step in combatting this pervasive bias. The time to collect feedback is now. Before a decision looms large. Remember the words of legendary physicist Richard Feynman, “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”