The best runner does not always win the race. In large and small organizations, who gets promoted is often a head-scratcher. How the devil did “so-and-so” get promoted over a much more qualified peer? Was the promotion process rigged? Is it really about who you know and not what you can do?
This article assumes jobs are scarce and moving up w/in a company is the norm - which used to be the cases when the job market was tight.
With the boomer generation starting to retire and remote work becoming the norm, a labor shortage is developing which gives top performers more options. A company that promotes a less-able performer over a top performer to maintain the numbers will soon find themselves w/no performer because they'll have gotten a job somewhere else.
Having written that - training your replacement is always a good idea for upward mobility or for giving you time to learn how to do higher level work. Getting your subordinates promoted to other positions in the company can be used to make a case for a raise or promotion for yourself - or a better job somewhere else.
Peter Zeihan has some good talks on demographic shifts in different countries and what they mean for companies and the workforce.
Within a company there will be competition for promotions for the simple reason that as you move up levels in an org chart there's less positions available at each level.
In a loose labor market or a stay-with-one-company-for-your-career environment there'd be intense competition for promotions because higher positions are a limited commodity relative to the number of people that could fill them.
However, a tight labor market turns that around, particularly where positions require specialized skills that are in short supply. If a company can't find that skillset within their company they'll start a search to hire someone from another company.
Since you posited a high performing employee, that would make this person a limited quantity. If the company promoted a lesser qualified person and left the more qualified person in place in order to keep making the numbers, they'll have disrespected and insulted the more qualified employee and showed that loyalty only goes one way. If another company needs what the high performing employee can provide and are willing to give the performing employee a bump in responsibilities and salary, I can't see the performing employee staying with the company that'd passed them over for a less qualified employee.
Peter is a prolifict speaker with a large amount of content on YouTube. For the most part his presentations are variations on a theme with tweaks to tailor the content to include current events and the needs of his current audience.
I haven't seen this specific recording - given what I've seen in past recordings I'd fully expect he'd touch on the labor market going forward in this one as well.
Search "peter zeihan demographics" to find recordings where Peter specifically addresses current and future demographics.
This article assumes jobs are scarce and moving up w/in a company is the norm - which used to be the cases when the job market was tight.
With the boomer generation starting to retire and remote work becoming the norm, a labor shortage is developing which gives top performers more options. A company that promotes a less-able performer over a top performer to maintain the numbers will soon find themselves w/no performer because they'll have gotten a job somewhere else.
Having written that - training your replacement is always a good idea for upward mobility or for giving you time to learn how to do higher level work. Getting your subordinates promoted to other positions in the company can be used to make a case for a raise or promotion for yourself - or a better job somewhere else.
Peter Zeihan has some good talks on demographic shifts in different countries and what they mean for companies and the workforce.
Absolutely -- Training your replacement demonstrates that your have both sides of an admired leader, character and competence.
But even in this job market, TIm, does there not still exist competition for promotions?
Won't the scarcity continue to exist in the hierarchy of a typical org chart -- with or without a tight job market?
Within a company there will be competition for promotions for the simple reason that as you move up levels in an org chart there's less positions available at each level.
In a loose labor market or a stay-with-one-company-for-your-career environment there'd be intense competition for promotions because higher positions are a limited commodity relative to the number of people that could fill them.
However, a tight labor market turns that around, particularly where positions require specialized skills that are in short supply. If a company can't find that skillset within their company they'll start a search to hire someone from another company.
Since you posited a high performing employee, that would make this person a limited quantity. If the company promoted a lesser qualified person and left the more qualified person in place in order to keep making the numbers, they'll have disrespected and insulted the more qualified employee and showed that loyalty only goes one way. If another company needs what the high performing employee can provide and are willing to give the performing employee a bump in responsibilities and salary, I can't see the performing employee staying with the company that'd passed them over for a less qualified employee.
Agreed, and certainly not in this climate.
Are Peter’s talks on YouTube?
This could be the exact talk that TIm is referring to -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWyhKobyM68
Thank you very much. I'm a sucker for demographic topics.
This one'll certainly get your attention.
This talk includes the demographic information Peter's presented in a number of sessions. Thanks for looking it up and linking it!
Absolutely - glad you mentioned it.
Peter is a prolifict speaker with a large amount of content on YouTube. For the most part his presentations are variations on a theme with tweaks to tailor the content to include current events and the needs of his current audience.
I haven't seen this specific recording - given what I've seen in past recordings I'd fully expect he'd touch on the labor market going forward in this one as well.
Search "peter zeihan demographics" to find recordings where Peter specifically addresses current and future demographics.