After making a bad choice, team members are often told by the leader that their judgment was “off,” suggesting they need to make a better decision next time.
Out of the two, experience and reasoning, I'd argue that reasoning is more important than experience. I like Phil Tetlock's analogy of Hedgehogs and Foxes. Given two people with the same amount of experience on a given subject, I'll take Foxes all day long over Hedgehogs. Foxes draw from multiple perspectives and are comfortable with uncertainty while Hedgehogs view the world through a single big idea or framework, regardless of their level of expertise.
Judgment gets better with experience yes, but you can also improve it through debriefings and evaluating others' experiences and judgments. We work with pilots in a community setting where the main thing we do is share our challenges, the lessons we are learning, and how we are applying them. We do this in a group setting so that every pilot can learn and grow from other pilots. A junior pilot might have experienced a scenario a senior pilot still hasn't.
Learning to make good judgments doesn't have to be a solo adventure! Heck, a wise man will learn from everyone else's mistakes!
Love this - creating feedback loops doesn't necessarily have to be driven by our actions. This is much of how I learned as I advanced through the leadership ranks, observing the decisions, actions, and behaviors of those around me.
I agree. I believe direct experience is primary, as highlighted in the article, and the observations of others compound the lessons learned that we can integrate to speed up the process of how much direct experience is required to become consciously and then unconsciously competent in something. I think it also serves dual purposes - to show us what we want to emulate AND what we don't want to emulate.
I would echo this. Experience certainly helps, but deliberate reflection and structured thinking can dramatically accelerate someone’s ability to predict outcomes and assess quality. I often encourage decision journaling that logs the reasoning behind the choice, expected outcomes, alternative options considered, and post-outcome reflection. This builds a pattern-recognition ability much faster than waiting for years of experience to accumulate.
Judgment is often seen as a product of experience, but in reality, it’s reasoning that determines the quality of our decisions. A person with years of experience can still make poor choices if their reasoning is flawed, while someone with less experience but strong analytical skills can consistently make sound judgments. The real issue isn’t just the decisions people make, but their ability to anticipate outcomes and assess quality. Those who struggle with these skills aren’t necessarily inexperienced—they simply fail to connect information in a way that leads to accurate conclusions. Poor judgment isn’t about how long someone has been doing something; it’s about how well they process information, weigh consequences, and distinguish between what works and what doesn’t. Leaders often assume that judgment improves over time, but time alone doesn’t sharpen reasoning. What’s needed is a conscious effort to refine critical thinking, challenge assumptions, and learn from past decisions. Strengthening reasoning—not just gaining experience—is what truly leads to better judgment.
Judging issues and interpreting circumstances is critically important for any leader and leadership team. Without a shadow of a doubt, Australia is richly blessed to have our Prime Minister and his team making quality decisions based on finely honed judgements every day of the week.
To have such a team so in tune with each other and the Australian electorate as a whole is a rare quality. The team are ‘together as one’ in harmony which is bringing great blessings to Australia.
Out of the two, experience and reasoning, I'd argue that reasoning is more important than experience. I like Phil Tetlock's analogy of Hedgehogs and Foxes. Given two people with the same amount of experience on a given subject, I'll take Foxes all day long over Hedgehogs. Foxes draw from multiple perspectives and are comfortable with uncertainty while Hedgehogs view the world through a single big idea or framework, regardless of their level of expertise.
Oh nice!
Here is a good 38 minute listen for those interested in this metaphor...
https://www.npr.org/2019/07/08/739502013/the-fox-and-the-hedgehog-a-story-of-triumphs-and-tragedy
Insightful!
Judgment gets better with experience yes, but you can also improve it through debriefings and evaluating others' experiences and judgments. We work with pilots in a community setting where the main thing we do is share our challenges, the lessons we are learning, and how we are applying them. We do this in a group setting so that every pilot can learn and grow from other pilots. A junior pilot might have experienced a scenario a senior pilot still hasn't.
Learning to make good judgments doesn't have to be a solo adventure! Heck, a wise man will learn from everyone else's mistakes!
Love this - creating feedback loops doesn't necessarily have to be driven by our actions. This is much of how I learned as I advanced through the leadership ranks, observing the decisions, actions, and behaviors of those around me.
Perhaps debriefs work as a sort of doubling of the experience?
I agree. I believe direct experience is primary, as highlighted in the article, and the observations of others compound the lessons learned that we can integrate to speed up the process of how much direct experience is required to become consciously and then unconsciously competent in something. I think it also serves dual purposes - to show us what we want to emulate AND what we don't want to emulate.
I would echo this. Experience certainly helps, but deliberate reflection and structured thinking can dramatically accelerate someone’s ability to predict outcomes and assess quality. I often encourage decision journaling that logs the reasoning behind the choice, expected outcomes, alternative options considered, and post-outcome reflection. This builds a pattern-recognition ability much faster than waiting for years of experience to accumulate.
Journaling is a good way to double the experience.
Reviewing the journal is tripling?
Judgment is often seen as a product of experience, but in reality, it’s reasoning that determines the quality of our decisions. A person with years of experience can still make poor choices if their reasoning is flawed, while someone with less experience but strong analytical skills can consistently make sound judgments. The real issue isn’t just the decisions people make, but their ability to anticipate outcomes and assess quality. Those who struggle with these skills aren’t necessarily inexperienced—they simply fail to connect information in a way that leads to accurate conclusions. Poor judgment isn’t about how long someone has been doing something; it’s about how well they process information, weigh consequences, and distinguish between what works and what doesn’t. Leaders often assume that judgment improves over time, but time alone doesn’t sharpen reasoning. What’s needed is a conscious effort to refine critical thinking, challenge assumptions, and learn from past decisions. Strengthening reasoning—not just gaining experience—is what truly leads to better judgment.
Judging issues and interpreting circumstances is critically important for any leader and leadership team. Without a shadow of a doubt, Australia is richly blessed to have our Prime Minister and his team making quality decisions based on finely honed judgements every day of the week.
To have such a team so in tune with each other and the Australian electorate as a whole is a rare quality. The team are ‘together as one’ in harmony which is bringing great blessings to Australia.