Every decision is connected to positive and negative consequences, some intentional and others unexpected. Thinking through the possible consequences and implications of a decision is something all good decision-makers do. However, it is important to know when to leave the consequences aside and let the facts and probabilities influence the outcome.
We can spend a lot of time worry about stuff that may or may not happen in the future. I see this happening during project planning sessions. We consider a path/decision to make and think about the intended and unintended outcomes that may come up. Then someone continues to ask, "But what if this happens?" "Then what if that happens?" At some point, you have the play the hand you were dealt and let the chips fall where they may. I think what's most important is to have a good strategy to fall back on when things down turn out exactly as planned - and then focus on execution.
Maybe the brainstorm of "lets list everything that might go wrong" is useful in helping a team to really spend time with the question. But to feel the need to account for every one of those possibilities would be crippling.
In general, what do you think...
How many given contingency plans should be developed?
I think it is good to run through scenarios that are likely to happen based on past experience. We have the tendency to ignore base rates. What do you think about contemplating about the worst possible outcomes and work backward from there? Sometimes, I’ll ask my team, “What’s the worse that can happen?” This often helps calibrate our appetite for risk.
It makes a lot of sense to me to start with worse possible scenarios when creating contingencies. Asking that question probably fleshes out a majority of the medium and small snafus as well.
"the present data add to a growing body of research suggesting that OCD patients, believing their intrusive thoughts to be particularly important and perceiving a need to control them, overuse maladaptive thought control strategies; these strategies tend to “backfire” and trigger additional intrusive thoughts."
Your recommendation here seems to line up right with the above study.
"Act like you've been here before."
or
"Act like you're here now."
We can spend a lot of time worry about stuff that may or may not happen in the future. I see this happening during project planning sessions. We consider a path/decision to make and think about the intended and unintended outcomes that may come up. Then someone continues to ask, "But what if this happens?" "Then what if that happens?" At some point, you have the play the hand you were dealt and let the chips fall where they may. I think what's most important is to have a good strategy to fall back on when things down turn out exactly as planned - and then focus on execution.
Maybe the brainstorm of "lets list everything that might go wrong" is useful in helping a team to really spend time with the question. But to feel the need to account for every one of those possibilities would be crippling.
In general, what do you think...
How many given contingency plans should be developed?
I think it is good to run through scenarios that are likely to happen based on past experience. We have the tendency to ignore base rates. What do you think about contemplating about the worst possible outcomes and work backward from there? Sometimes, I’ll ask my team, “What’s the worse that can happen?” This often helps calibrate our appetite for risk.
It makes a lot of sense to me to start with worse possible scenarios when creating contingencies. Asking that question probably fleshes out a majority of the medium and small snafus as well.
Found this an interesting abstract and study when searching around "maladaptive control"
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/216682017_The_Relationship_between_Obsessive_Beliefs_and_Thought-Control_Strategies_in_a_Clinical_Sample
"the present data add to a growing body of research suggesting that OCD patients, believing their intrusive thoughts to be particularly important and perceiving a need to control them, overuse maladaptive thought control strategies; these strategies tend to “backfire” and trigger additional intrusive thoughts."
Your recommendation here seems to line up right with the above study.
Thanks for the resource, Steve.