Given the unprecedented change that occurs in virtually all enterprises and businesses, the range of useful forecasts has narrowed from years to months to even weeks in many arenas.
It's true that the speed of change can render long-term forecasts less practical, but as you rightly point out, the purpose of planning is evolving. I continue to see value in strategic planning, as long as there is organizational understanding that plans evolve, and are not set in stone.
Typically, in my past experience, rigidity around "the plan" sets in, and despite changing market conditions, there is reluctance to change course. This may due partly to consistency bias, vs previous actions. I have found that incorporating a "north star" concept, and empowering people to course adjust along the way, works much better.
Do you think that ‘unprecedented change’ might possibly be an illusion or bias? And that most of the changes we witness are superficial and that nothing of substance has changed much if at all?
What time horizon do you have in mind when posing this question, David?
Is the invention and proliferation of the internet qualify as an unprecedented change?
Or is the question based on a year-over-year time frame... if so then the idea that nothing of substance has changed much at all is much more agreeable.
Less about if change occurs - it does. My question was more about our perception of the rate of change. You can go back and read accounts from 100 years ago and the people back then will talk about the unprecedented rate of change they were experiencing. Fast forward through the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, etc.. and you continue to read the same thing. Either the rate of change is truly increasing or we are biased to think that we're unique and special. Given our history, I'm betting on the latter. BTW - Such a deep and thought provoking article today. Really enjoyed today's X Spaces Conversation and how you guys expanded on today's Field Note. Got me thinking that from a personal or business strategy - there are two general plans one should have: 1) In Times of Feast; and 2) In Times of Famine. During good times, you need to remind yourself that it won't last forever, and during the hard times, this too will pass. I think the goal of any individual or organization should to become as Nicolas Taleb calls Antifragile. You don't just survive hardship, you come out on the other side stronger. How? If you find yourself at a fork in the road with two paths - always choose the harder path. In the short run, you'll suffer. But in the longer run, you'll be better off. I think this is why long term planning is still important. It not only provides clarity of through, but also discipline. Thanks for the post and conversation today - made me think.
Antifragile is a challenging read when looking to find application… but something like this is a good way to start to think about applying Taleb’s ideas.
I really enjoyed reading this. This article articulates exactly why it can be frustrating to be in leadership within an organisation that continues to develop 5 year strategic plans.
It's true that the speed of change can render long-term forecasts less practical, but as you rightly point out, the purpose of planning is evolving. I continue to see value in strategic planning, as long as there is organizational understanding that plans evolve, and are not set in stone.
Typically, in my past experience, rigidity around "the plan" sets in, and despite changing market conditions, there is reluctance to change course. This may due partly to consistency bias, vs previous actions. I have found that incorporating a "north star" concept, and empowering people to course adjust along the way, works much better.
Very well said!
Do you think that ‘unprecedented change’ might possibly be an illusion or bias? And that most of the changes we witness are superficial and that nothing of substance has changed much if at all?
David,
As I get older, I have found things seem to be repeating themselves.
Now, with globalization, I suspect that that has made thingsl a little bit more chaotic.
Thank you for your time and post.
-Joe
What time horizon do you have in mind when posing this question, David?
Is the invention and proliferation of the internet qualify as an unprecedented change?
Or is the question based on a year-over-year time frame... if so then the idea that nothing of substance has changed much at all is much more agreeable.
Less about if change occurs - it does. My question was more about our perception of the rate of change. You can go back and read accounts from 100 years ago and the people back then will talk about the unprecedented rate of change they were experiencing. Fast forward through the 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, etc.. and you continue to read the same thing. Either the rate of change is truly increasing or we are biased to think that we're unique and special. Given our history, I'm betting on the latter. BTW - Such a deep and thought provoking article today. Really enjoyed today's X Spaces Conversation and how you guys expanded on today's Field Note. Got me thinking that from a personal or business strategy - there are two general plans one should have: 1) In Times of Feast; and 2) In Times of Famine. During good times, you need to remind yourself that it won't last forever, and during the hard times, this too will pass. I think the goal of any individual or organization should to become as Nicolas Taleb calls Antifragile. You don't just survive hardship, you come out on the other side stronger. How? If you find yourself at a fork in the road with two paths - always choose the harder path. In the short run, you'll suffer. But in the longer run, you'll be better off. I think this is why long term planning is still important. It not only provides clarity of through, but also discipline. Thanks for the post and conversation today - made me think.
Thanks for your valuable reflections, David.
Antifragile is a challenging read when looking to find application… but something like this is a good way to start to think about applying Taleb’s ideas.
A little help from Claude: Prompt - TLDR Antifragile:
Here's a concise summary of "Antifragile" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
Antifragility: A property of systems that gain from disorder, stress, and volatility.
Three categories:
Fragile: Breaks under stress
Robust: Resists stress
Antifragile: Improves with stress
Key concepts:
Via negativa: Improvement by removing negatives rather than adding positives
Optionality: Maintaining flexibility to benefit from positive unforeseen events
Barbell strategy: Combining very safe and very risky approaches
Applications:
Economics: Small, adaptable businesses over large corporations
Health: Some stress (e.g., exercise, fasting) benefits the body
Education: Real-world experience over pure theory
Main argument: Embrace volatility and uncertainty for growth and improvement rather than trying to predict and control everything.
Or, a simpler strategy might be to heed George Bluth Sr.'s advice: “There’s always money in the banana stand!”
I really enjoyed reading this. This article articulates exactly why it can be frustrating to be in leadership within an organisation that continues to develop 5 year strategic plans.