When Was the Last Time You Used a Decision Tree?

Leaders have been relying on a tree-like model to make decisions for decades. A so-called decision tree breaks down a decision into a set of rules and choices and creates a path forward until a decision is reached. 

By illuminating each choice or branch on the tree, the pivotal choices are considered one by one, thereby breaking down a highly complex decision into more manageable choices.   

Any decision that involves a nesting of alternatives, uncertainties, or potential outcomes would likely benefit from constructing such a tree. While decision trees are heavily used in fields like statistics and artificial intelligence, they don’t get as much play by leaders in other disciplines. 

This is an opportunity lost. 

The fact is that decision trees are particularly powerful when a leader confronts a complex decision with numerous variables, attributes, and probabilities to consider. The tree helps leaders and team members to visualize the decision-making process and provides a structured framework for distinguishing between options, choices, and their consequences. 

An added benefit of decision trees is how transparent they make the decision-making process. Not only does this visual transparency create more understanding and buy-in, but it is also a tool from which leaders can learn how better decisions are made. Showing team members a decision tree and walking them through the choices at each branch promotes a conversation about the assumptions, judgments, values, and experiences critical to the final outcome. 

Crafting a decision tree is relatively easy and instructive to boot. The first step is to define the decision to be made and to identify all the possible alternatives or choices available. 

Let’s say the ultimate decision in question is what kind of celebratory dessert to make for a friend’s birthday gathering. The decision to be made is what dessert. To keep it simple, the alternatives might be cake, pie, or fudge. 

Next, the decision-maker must identify the variables that will influence the decision and determine the likely outcomes associated with each alternative. In the dessert example, some of the variables might be how many people the dessert will need to serve, how far in advance the chef can make the dessert and keep it fresh, what the dessert follows regarding the main meal, and so on. 

The variables and choices are typically framed as a question with a forced choice answer, such as Yes or No. The answer to the question takes the decision-maker down a different set of branches toward the decision. 

The decision-maker starts with a presumptive question that serves as the foundation for the tree. For instance, the initial variable in the dessert example may be cost: Do we have an unlimited budget for the dessert? The answer Yes might take us to the next branch question: Do we have more than 24 hours to create the dessert? A No answer to the foundational question might take us to a branch that asks: Do we need to make the dessert as cheaply as possible?  You get the idea. 

The more complex or highly variable the decision, the more useful a decision tree would be. Try it the next time you face a decision with a host of possibilities at nearly every point in the process. A decision tree might paint a more manageable and vivid picture.